四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯良敏  周秋雪  陈朝平  范江琳 《高原山地气象研究》2019,39(2):30-36

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。  相似文献   

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii     

Jie FENG  Jianping LI  Jing ZHANG  Deqiang LIU  Ruiqiang DING 《大气科学进展》2019,36(3):271-278

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.  相似文献   

Indian Ocean Dipole-related Predictability Barriers Induced by Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM     

Rong FENG  Wansuo DUAN 《大气科学进展》2019,36(6):658-668

利用GFDL CM2p1模式, 本文探讨了初始海温误差对印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件可预报性的影响. 当热带印度洋存在初始海温误差时, IOD预报发生了冬季预报障碍(WPB)现象和夏季预报障碍(SPB)现象. WPB发生与否与正IOD事件发展位相冬季的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关. 即当冬季存在ENSO时, IOD预测不发生WPB现象, 反之亦然. 相比之下, SPB发生与否和ENSO没有必然联系. 此外, 进一步探讨了最容易导致SPB现象的初始海温误差的主要模态, 指出该模态在热带印度洋上表现为东-西偶极子型, 这和前人研究中最容易导致WPB现象的初始海温误差模态相似. 当在热带印度洋上叠加这些初始海温误差后, 热带太平洋上出现了海表温度异常和风场异常, 进而通过大气桥和印尼贯穿流的作用影响热带印度洋, 使之在夏季出现了东-西偶极子型的海表温度异常, 该异常在Bjerknes作用下快速发展, 加强, 最终导致SPB现象的发生.  相似文献   

SENSITIVITY OF THE WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING MODEL TO RADIATION SCHEMES IN CHINA     

王永立  冯锦明  郑子彦  靳少非 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(2):201-210

Results of one-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, with the use of different radiation schemes (RRTM, RRTMG, CAM, New Goddard and Goddard), are evaluated for China. The observations used in the model assessment include station data from the China Meteorological Administration, 14 flux field sites arranged in a coordinated observation network, and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. Specifically, based on a Taylor diagram, the temperature differences between the radiation schemes are small, and the best annual mean spatial pattern and average value for China as a whole is produced by RRTMG. For the rainfall and net radiation annual mean simulation, the New Goddard and CAM schemes present better results than the RRTMG scheme. With respect to low cloud cover, all the schemes have similar reproduction without high cover on east of Tibet Plateau. Overall, the New Goddard and CAM schemes are suitable for longtime simulation without nesting and nudging options.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF     

肖辉  万齐林  刘显通  郑腾飞  冯璐  夏丰  陈景华 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):312-323

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.  相似文献   

青海祁漫塔格虎头崖多金属矿区岩体热年代学研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

瞿泓滢  丰成友  裴荣富  何书跃  李大新  刘建楠  王辉  周建厚 《地质学报》2015,89(3):498-509

虎头崖铜铅锌多金属矿床是青海祁漫塔格地区典型的与印支期岩浆侵入活动有关的接触交代矿床,矿区内出露多个不同时代的含碳酸盐地层,金属成矿元素组合复杂,中酸性侵入岩产状多变、岩性多样,成矿岩体及其成矿能力的判别一直制约着该矿区及区域的找矿勘查工作。本文基于详细的野外地质调查,开展了岩体热年代学和岩石地球化学研究。利用LA-MC-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb法,获得二长花岗岩体的年龄为230.3±3.7 Ma(n=13,MSWD=1.4);利用40 Ar-39 Ar法,获得二长花岗岩中黑云母和斜长石矿物的坪年龄分别为229.6±2.3 Ma和219.3±1.8Ma,厘定成岩时代为印支期。对二长花岗岩中不同矿物的岩体冷速率计算结果表明,虎头崖矿区二长花岗岩冷速率相对较快,其热效应较大,具有较大的成矿潜力。二长花岗岩为高钾钙碱性系列岩石,源于古老地壳物质的深熔或重熔,并可能有幔源物质的加入。  相似文献   

未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

成爱芳  冯起  张健恺  李宗省  王岗 《地理科学》2015,(1)

气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。  相似文献   

酸溶-电感耦合等离子发射光谱法测定密西西比型铅锌矿床矿石中的铅   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

卢彦  冯勇  李刚  刘卫 《岩矿测试》2015,34(4):442-447

密西西比型(MVT)铅锌矿床的主要矿物有方铅石、闪锌矿,常伴生有重晶石、萤石等矿物,使得MVT型矿石在酸处理过程中易生成不溶于水和酸的硫酸铅钡复盐,故而检测矿样中铅的含量偏低。本文建立了采用盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸体系酸溶分解MVT型矿石,电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-OES)测定铅含量的分析方法。实验比较了盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸、盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸-高氯酸、盐酸-硝酸-硫酸三种酸溶体系的溶样效果,并通过X射线衍射论证了方法的可行性。结果表明,盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸体系克服了复盐硫酸铅钡和硫酸铅沉淀的生成,适量的氢氟酸促进了Pb SO4的溶解,X射线衍射表征也表明此种酸溶体系的沉淀中不含有Pb SO4,可更彻底地分解MVT型矿石。本方法精密度(RSD)为0.3%~0.6%,实际样品的加标回收率为96.0%~99.2%,铅的最佳检测范围为0.01%~20.0%。  相似文献   

试论新疆成矿体系与时空演化模式   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

董连慧  刘德权  唐延龄  冯京  屈迅  李凤鸣  田江涛  徐仕琪 《矿床地质》2015,34(6):1107-1129

文章探讨了成矿体系的内涵,在以往研究成果和编制1∶1 500 000中国新疆维吾尔自治区矿床成矿系列图的基础上,根据先时间、后空间、再成因的总体思路,完善了新疆前寒武纪、早古生代、晚古生代、中生代、新生代五个时段成矿体系,初步构建了各时段成矿体系的时空演化模式,总结出5个时段成矿体系的特点是:前寒武纪为基底陆壳的形成与发展各具特色的成矿体系;早古生代板块体制早期发育具中亚成矿域特色的成矿体系;晚古生代板块体制晚期发育具中亚成矿域特色的成矿体系;中生代新疆北部发育板内西域成矿特色的成矿体系和新疆南部发育特提斯成矿域特色的成矿体系;新生代发育板内西域成矿特色的大陆成矿体系。  相似文献   

古亚洲构造域侵入岩时——空演化框架   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

邓晋福  冯艳芳  狄永军  刘翠  肖庆辉  苏尚国  赵国春  孟斐  车如风 《地质论评》2015,61(6):1211-1224

长期以来,许多著名学者提出众多模型,讨论古亚洲构造域的构造演化和造山(带)结构样式。但是,认识上的分歧很大,特别是关于主洋盆的空间位置和闭合时间。本文主要基于中国侵入岩大地构造编图(1∶250万)和研究这个侧面,参与讨论。1侵入(岩)弧,碰撞和后造山岩石组合,随时间由西向东变新,同时,主构造带走向从近东西向转为近南北向,暗示古亚洲洋的闭合最终转化为太平洋构造域。2位于主洋盆北侧的是宽阔的西伯利亚克拉通南缘的沟——弧——盆系统;位于南侧的西面为南天山被动陆缘,中部为塔里木克拉通北缘的窄的沟——弧——盆系统,东面为华北克拉通北缘的活动陆缘。3主体侵入(岩)弧的内部分散地分布着从Pt3开始的残留弧和残留oφ,被看做是主体弧的基底。4传统上认为的构造相对稳定的"地块",本文基于它们的侵入(岩)组合归为残留弧,认为不是构造上相对稳定的性质,并未采用"地块"的术语,而把它们看作洋陆转换过程中早期残余岛弧处理。5提出主洋盆的识别有三个标志,(a)洋闭合最晚,(b)或为双向俯冲(当两侧均为活动大陆边缘时),或单向俯冲(当一侧为被动陆缘,另一侧为活动陆缘时),(c)长寿命的洋以及洋闭合带常常发育地中海式残余洋发育的陆——陆碰撞早阶段。6该构造域主要发育Pt3——T的侵入(岩)弧和oφ,支持S¨engor等关于大量新生陆壳的推测,亦与大量花岗岩类为εNd(t)"+"值符合。新生陆壳的形成又暗示,长时间的洋俯冲必导致地幔的冷却,以及大量榴辉岩进入地幔,最终导致高密度的地幔下降流形成,必导致洋的闭合与随后的陆——陆碰撞,形成最初的东亚大陆。  相似文献